Fooling Around with Milly Part 1:Rounding First Base

MLE’s (or Major League Equivalencies) are interesting because they translate the statistical performances of players from the minors and give for an estimation of how the player could have done had he been in the majors league. A more thorough explanation is here.

Using Minorleaguesplits’ batting calculator, I’ve input the MLE’s of select batters in the upper minors. Please note that these numbers are not meant to be predictive, or at least not any more predictive than minor league stats are meant to be. Rather the numbers are meant to quantify the context (ballpark, league difficulty, etc) so that the results are more meaningful. Here are the translated numbers for Fresno batters:

AB H 2B 3B HR BB K BA OBP SLG
Fresno
Schierholtz 329 88 17 8 10 15 49 0.269 0.300 0.458
Ishikawa 105 26 10 2 5 6 23 0.244 0.285 0.502
Denker 78 19 7 0 2 7 22 0.239 0.306 0.386
Downs 87 29 4 0 2 3 11 0.213 0.239 0.341
Ochoa 301 82 9 3 5 25 67 0.273 0.330 0.371
McClain 371 97 24 1 15 38 75 0.262 0.331 0.455

Ishikawa, Denker and Downs all have smaller sample sizes so their numbers are less reliable. But still, it looks like Ishikawa’s power is for real even in the homer-happy environments of the PCL. And, as everyone probably already knew, Travis Denker and Matt Downs need more time in the minors.

I was particularly interested in Nate’s line, because there has been a lot of talk about whether or not Nate is a AAAA player. Writing him off this early in his career sounds like bullshit to me. Just because a player didn’t drastically improve while repeating the same league doesn’t mean he will continue to stagnate. In fact, the MLE’s indicate that his 269/300/458 would be at least as impressive as Bowker’s line of 264/311/428. Also keep in mind that Bowker has been facing mostly righties, while Schierholtz has been facing both lefties and righties with no discernible platoon split. In some alternate universe where Randy Winn has been traded, Nate’s 10 homers are leading the Giants.

Ochoa’s numbers wouldn’t be terrible for a utility player, and he’s been called up to fill that role. And what’s there to say about McClain that hasn’t already been said? Dude can mash the ball. It’s a pity that he’s 36 years old. He shouldn’t be taking at-bats away from Bowker, so he stays where he is.

You can find their actual statistics here. Connecticut batters will be posted later tonight.

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One Response to Fooling Around with Milly Part 1:Rounding First Base

  1. […] hitting prospects in the upper minors.  I will post part three tomorrow.  You can find part one here and the original Connecticut stats […]

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