“Wednesday” Web Watch

• All Bumgarner, all the time. Madison’s been putting up ridiculous stats, and the baseball world is noticing. Here are write-ups from MiLB.com, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus. What’s your guess on where he’ll end up on the end of season prospect lists? I would venture somewhere in the 15-20 range.

John Sickels

reviews his preseason Giants Top 20 on his blog.

For comparison, here’s my preseason list:

1	Angel Villalona
2	Madison Bumgarner
3	Tim Alderson
4	Henry Sosa
5	Nate Schierholtz
6	Clayton Tanner
7	Nick Noonan
8	John Bowker
9	Wendell Fairly
10	Pat Misch
11	Travis Denker
12	Waldis Joaquin
13	Charles Culberson
14	Paul Oseguera
15	Ben Snyder
16	Pablo Sandoval
17	Nick Pereira
18	Andy D’Alessio
19	Osiris Matos
20	Emmanuel Burriss

Project Prospect Midseason Top 50

Project Prospect has posted its Midseason Top 50 Prospect list, and it features Madison Bumgarner at #14, Tim Alderson at #20, and Angel Villalona at #46. Three prospects in a top 50 list is certainly a welcome sign after years of farm system mediocrity. I’ve always been very high on Bumgarner, but I think Alderson is an over-rank here. I like Angel at #46. If Buster Posey had signed, he would most assuredly be in the top 50, my guess in mid to low 20s. How do you like the list? How do you think it compares to Rotoworld’s Top 150?

Top 25 Giants “Under” 25

Inspired by Project Prospect’s Top 25 under 25, here is my list of top 25 Giants “under” 25.

	Name	Pos.	Age	Level
1	Tim Lincecum	SP	24	MLB
2	Matt Cain	SP	23	MLB
3	Jonathon Sanchez	SP	25	MLB
4	Madison Bumgarner	SP	18	A
5	Angel Villalona	1B	17	A
6	Henry Sosa	SP	22	A+
7	John Bowker	1B/OF	24	MLB
8	Tim Alderson	SP	19	A+
9	Nate Schierholtz	RF	24	AAA
10	Nick Noonan	2B	19	A
11	Manny Burriss	SS	23	MLB
12	Travis Denker	2B	23	MLB
13	Alex Hinshaw	RP	25	MLB
14	Pablo Sandoval	C	22	AA
15	Wendell Fairley	OF	20	AZL
16	Travis Denker	2B	22	MLB
17	Travis Ishikawa	1B	24	AAA
18	Sergio Romo	RP	25	MLB
19	Osiris Matos	RP	23	MLB
20	Jesse English	SP	23	A+
21	Ben Copeland	OF	24	AA
22	Matt Downs	2B	24	AAA
23	Kelvin Pichardo	RP	22	AA
24	Clayton Tanner	SP	20	A+
25	Eddy Martinez-Esteve	OF	24	AA

Notes:

• This list is a little bit different from your typical prospect list. Those lists are intended to be predictive, with the writer looking at data in order to guess which prospects will have longterm value to an organization at the major league level and which will not. This list, however, is weighted more toward current production. When making the list, I still considered tools, projectability and all that jazz, but those factors were secondary to results and level of performance.
• You’ll notice that I fudged the numbers a little bit and included some 25 year olds like Jonathon Sanchez and Alex Hinshaw. I figured since I had already limited the talent pool to players in the Giants organization, I could have a little leeway on age.
• Matt Cain and Jonathon Sanchez were a very close second and third. In my initial draft of this list, I actually had Sanchez higher. What clinched it for me: if Matt ever figures out how to control his stuff, he can be a shut down ace (my favorite comp of his is Josh Beckett). On the other hand, Jonathon is already near his ceiling, a number 2 starter.

Comment starter(s): Is anyone on this list rated too high or too low in your opinion? Any omissions that should be included? How would your list look?

Sleepers

Well, I’m back in SF and will be here for a couple of weeks before I start on back to the Midwest. While I’m here, I plan on seeing some Fresno and BabyGiants games. It’s been a fun week on the road, but very taxing physically, so I’ll resume regular posting with Prospect Watch and the Minor Survey tomorrow. In the meantime, here are some players that just missed my June top prospect list (in order of prospecty-ness by level).

AAA
Clay Timpner

AA
Adam Witter
Paul Oseguera
Joey Martinez

A+
Dan Griffin
Sharlon Schoop
Kevin Pucetas

A
Francisco Peguero
Charlie Culberson
Daryl Maday

ssA
Wilber Bucardo

Giants 2008 June Prospect List

I will be embarking on a weeklong drive back to Bay Area tomorrow, so my posts will be sporadic. In the meantime, here’s my top 30 Giants prospect list.

Rank	Pos	Name	Grade	Comments
1	SP	Madison Bumgarner	A-	Lefty with a mid 90s fastball. Has put up excellent stats in his first full season, flashing good strikeout stuff and excellent control. I would not be surprised to see him finish the year in Augusta, but he won’t be truly challenged until AA.
2	C	(Buster Posey)	B+	Drafted #5 overall, purported to be good offensively and defensively.
3	1B	Angel Villalona	B+	Incredibly young with excellent raw power. He’s doing okay in the Sally legaue when you consider his age, but I would take Madison over Angel at this time.
4	SP	Henry Sosa	B	Holds this spot for now, but am worried about how much the offseason knee surgery has affected him.
5	SP	Tim Alderson	B	Tall righty who throws in the low 90s. His upside is a #3 SP for me.
6	RF	Nate Schierholtz	B	Excellent bat, excellent arm, walks are the only blemish. I think he will be a league average RF.
7	2B	Nick Noonan	B	One of the few Giants prospects who are playing age-appropriate to their league and still doing well.
8	3B	(Connor Gillaspie)	B	Polished bat that reminds many of Bill Mueller.
9	C	Pablo Sandoval	B	I think his improvement at the plate is real, and I think he can play C at the major league level. Would like to see him promoted.
10	OF	Wendell Fairley	B-	Toolsy OF drafted in the first round last year. I’ve heard that he will begin the season at Salem-Keizer.
11	RP	Alex Hinshaw	B-	I love the arm and think he can be a closer in the big leagues.
12	2B	Travis Denker	B-	This is the type of player that the A’s would love. Moderate tools, but has good plate discipline. I think he can be a regular in the bigs.
13	OF	(Roger Kieschnick)	B-	Another toolsy outfielder.
14	SP	Clayton Tanner	C+	Lefty who throws in the high 80s. Struggled a bit at San Jose, but is pitching better of late. His biggest asset is that he is young for the league.
15	RP	Billy Sadler	C+	I don’t know if Billy will ever find his control, but his stuff is undeniable.
16	RP	Osiris Matos	C+	Has better control than Billy. I would like to see how he fares in AAA.
17	1B	Thomas Neal	C+	Toolsy OF converted to 1B. Reminds me of Nate Schierholtz, with better plate discipline and less power.
18	SS	(Brandon Crawford)	C+	I’m not as high on him as others, but he’s an excellent value for the Giants at round 4.
19	RHP	Ben Copeland	C	Has had a tough time adjusting, to AA, but I think he will break out next season ala Dan Ortmeier.
20	SP	Nick Pereira	C	Blazed through the lower minors and hit a wall in AAA. Still can be a #5/spt starter.
21	RP	Kelvin Pichardo	C	Another promising Giants reliever. Would like to see how he does in AAA.
22	RP	Waldis Joaquin	C	Mid 90s fastball with a hard slider. Still hasn’t found his groove in full-season ball, but I’m willing to wait a while longer.
23	SS	Brian Bocock	C	Good defense. Hitting needs work. Should be in San Jose or Connecticut.
24	2B	Matt Downs	C	Solid player, with decent power and plate discipline, but too old for San Jose.
25	SP	Ben Snyder	C	Lefty who put up great numbers in San Jose. I don’t know how his stuff will hold up in the future, but reminds me of Pat Misch.
26	RP	Erick Threets	C	I am pessimistic about his control. The fact that he was not picked up off of waivers shows that other teams are too.
27	1B	Travis Ishikawa	C	Needs to address his lefty/righty splits.
28	RP	Geno Espineli	C	Fringe stuff, but putting up good number in AAA. I don’t think his stuff will dominate at the bigs, but he could be a servicable reliever.
29	SP	Jesse English	C	Put up great numbers at San Jose with fringy stuff. I would like to see him promoted soon.
30	RP	Sergio Romo	C	Another Giants reliever. Doesn’t quite have the velocity of Pichardo or Matos, but he’s put up crazy strikeout numbers wherever he has played. I would like to see him in Fresno.

Some notes:
- I tend to under-rank recent draftees. At the end of the season, The big four from June probably would be a couple of spots higher.
- As it is, Buster Posey is very close to #1 on this list.
- I like to think that I have a good balance between risk and ceiling. I am not a big fan of prospects like F-Mart or Jose Tabata, whose greatest attributes are tools and age-relative-to-league. That is why I have Angel at #3 here.
- With that said, the Giants have a lot of players who are dominating younger competition. I have tried to take that into account.

Any nits to be picked here? Any profound disagreements? I would love to hear them.

Inaugural

As a native of San Francisco, I’ve been following the Giants for most of my life. Only in the last couple of years have I paid attention (internet stalked) Giants prospects. So here’s a blast from the past, my Top 30 Giants Prospects, circa March 2006:

1	Matt Cain
2	Merkin Valdez
3	Marcus Sanders
4	Dan Ortmeier
5	Fred Lewis
6	Eddy Martinez-Esteve
7	Travis Ishikawa
8	Jonothan Sanchez
9	Kevin Frandsen
10	Nate Schierholtz
11	Shairon Martis
12	Brian Wilson
13	Daniel Griffin
14	Waldis Joaquin
15	Jeremy Accardo
16	Pablo Sandoval
17	Chris Begg
18	Ben Copeland
19	Clay Timpner
20	Patrick Misch
21	Craig Whitaker
22	Brian Horwitz
23	Jack Taschner
24	Justin Hedrick
25	Brian Anderson
26	Michael Mooney
27	Caleb Salankey
28	Billy Sadler
29	Ryan Sadowski
30	Erick Threets

This was the first list I ever constructed. Marcus Sanders was an obvious miss, though I was not the only one who had him this high. I expected Dan Ortmeier to put up Randy Winn type numbers, which in retrospect was a bad call. EME and Ishikawa both plateaued in AA. They still have a chance to be major leaguers, but it’s not looking likely. I do like that I have Sandoval in the top 20 and the relative placement of Wilson and Accardo. And no, I have no idea what Caleb Salankey is doing now. With a name like that I imagine he’s populating a J.D. Salinger novel somewhere.