Minor Survey: Fresno Pitchers

You’ve waited a long time for this. When I stated my intent to start a series of posts in which I ask probing questions, then answer those questions in a haughty and cavalier manner, you thought, “Yes, MY GOD, yes! Finally a series of posts I can get behind!” Well– *clears throat, adopts Darth voice*– You Shall Wait No Longer.

Fresno Pitchers

The strength of the San Francisco Giants farm system in recent years have been pitching. If you look at the pitchers on the major league roster, all but two members of the staff (Yabu and the 126 million dollar man) came through the farm. This year alone, Giants fans saw Merkin Valdez, Alex Hinshaw, and Billy Sadler lose their prospect status. Good news for San Francisco, but bad news for Fresno. The pitching graduations coupled with a couple of weak 2003-2005 drafts have led to a Fresno staff almost barren of pitching prospects. How exciting!

True Prospects

There are no true pitching prospects in Fresno at this time.

Fringe Prospects

SP Nick Pereira

A local kid from Fremont, Nick was drafted in the tenth round of the 2005 draft from USF. He was a middle infielder until his sophomore year, when he converted to pitching. On draft day, BA reported him as throwing a 92-93 mph sinker and a good slider. Recent scouting reports, however, indicate that he works in the 87-89 range, touching 90 on occasion. He still has his slider and has added a change and curve to his repertoire. In 2006 he had a breakout season at San Jose, and the Giants decided to promote him midseason to Fresno. At Fresno, Nick flopped. His walk rate jumped from 1.89 to 5.47, and his home run rate similarly soared from 0.11 to 1.14. What happened here? The likely answer is that the 92-93 mph sinker was a draft day mirage, and his high 80s fastball and offspeed stuff which dominated San Jose couldn’t cut it in Fresno.

Now it’s two years later, and Nick is back in Fresno. He is still allowing more than a hit an inning, but he has cut his walk rate to 3.76. If Nick can regain that mythical 92-93 mph sinker through a complicated ritual involving a live steer and mardi gras beads, then he has a chance to be a back of the rotation starter. The more likely scenario, however, is that he learns how to keep the ball down and continues to improve on his control. If that happens, he may be a #5 pitcher/ spot starter.

RP Geno Espineli

Geno was drafted in the 14th round of the 2004 draft. A 6′4 lefthander, he threw in the high 80s when he was a starter. He was converted exclusively to a reliever this season, and he has thrived in the role, lowering his walk rate and increasing his strikeout rate. Through 43.2 innings this season, he has not yet allowed a homerun. His improvements are all the more impressive when you consider that this is his first season in Fresno. What does the future hold for Geno? The knocks against him are his age (he will turn 26 in September) and his stuff. While I don’t think his 7.63 k/9 ratio will hold in the majors, I think his 2.21 GO/AO ratio will. If called up tomorrow, his role in the bullpen will be as a lefty specialist.

Next up, Connecticut hitters!

Giants Minor Survey: Fresno Hitters

Today I’d like to start a multi-part multi-day analysis of the Giants Farm system, level by level. Numbers will be crunched. Statements will be stated. Prospects will be de- and re-prospected. At the end everyone will breathe a sigh of relief and nod at each other knowingly for having gone through an event that will have changed their lives FOREVER. By everyone I of course mean the two regular readers that frequent this blog. (Mom? Dad? Is that you?) Anyway. Onward!

AAA FRESNO GRIZZLIES

Like the Odyssey, the Aeneid and all of other great literary works of human history, our story starts in Fresno. Ah, Fresno. I remember you well, from that one time I stopped by.

There are three types of players in Triple-A: career minor leaguers, reclamation projects (usually players recovering from injuries of some sort) and prospects who are on the bubble of being on the major league roster. The Grizzlies this year seem particularly bereft of prospects, a consequence of a draft pick punting and poor amateur scouting during 2003-2005 and a Giants rebuilding year that claimed any prospect that had a pulse (except Nate Schierholtz who is being blocked by Randy “don’t call me Dwight” Winn). As a result, the Grizzlies batters average 27.3 years of age and the pitchers average 28.2, good for sixth and second oldest in the Pacific Coast League. (For your reference, the mean age for both pitchers and batters are 27.0 and there are sixteen teams total in the league.) That was a bone tossed out to the nerds. What it means for the rest of us normals is that the Grizzlies is an older team with a roster full of filler rather than prospects. How exciting!

True Prospects

These are legitimate prospects with a potential to be productive at the major league level.

RF Nate Schierholtz, 24: Nate is hitting .294/.345/.549 for an ops of .894. The big knock on his has been his lack of walks, but it appears that he has addressed that somewhat this year. Last year in Fresno he had a BB:K ratio of 17:54 in 411 at-bats. This year he has improved to 13:29 in 204 AB. He also improved his power stroke. Last year he had an extra base-hit percentage of 39.4. This year his xBH% is up to 45%. He is also reported to have a cannon for an arm and decent range. Also he helps old ladies cross the street and was recruited to infiltrate the Tal Shiar in the offseason. He should be called up to play everyday in San Francisco when Randy Winn gets traded.

IF/OF Eugenio Velez, 26: Giants fans got a whiff of Velez earlier this season and what they smelled was the acrid odor poor of defense and bone-headed baserunning that reminded young and old alike of that one time in college when a bag of potatoes was left to ferment in the pantry as an “experiment”. There were also a few troubling observations of emotional outbursts, though by most accounts prior to this year, Velez had no character issues prior to the season. I’ll chart it up to frustration for now. Velez had a breakout season in 2006 in low-A Augusta (.315/.369/.557, 64 steals) and followed it up with a good season in AA Connecticut (.298/.344/.399, 49 steals). He lost most of his power in the transition to AA and Dodd stadium, a very pitcher-friendly park, but kept his steals up. Thus far through 64 AAA at-bats, he is hitting to the tune of .393/.448/.574 with a 7/3 SB/CS ratio. He won’t maintain that line, but it is promising to see Velez hitting again. I don’t think he will ever be a solid regular in the big leagues, but he should be a decent utility-man once he straightens out his defense and base-running skills.

Fringe Prospects

These are prospects that profile to be bench players/AAAA type players.

CF Clay Timpner, 25: Clay has had 1.5 seasons at the AAA level before entering this season. Clay has always hit for decent average (his career BA is .280) and has above average speed. Unfortunately, his speed has not translated to stolen bases at the AAA level (his SB/CS is 21/21). He also does not get on base enough to offset his mediocre BA and lack of power. To compound these issues, he is only hitting .257/.327/.347 in Fresno this year. Unless he boosts his plate discipline and improves his SB skills, he is headed for AAAA land on a slow plane that has Underworld 2 on a loop and serves rubbery chicken fried steak with plastic utensils. Also there’s turbulence and you sit next to this guy who smells like gasoline which causes some consternation because there’s no gasoline on a plane… is there?

SS/2B Ivan Ochoa, 25: Ivan was a minor league rule 5 draftee from the Indians organization. This season he is hitting .304/.391/.418 while spending most of his time at 2B due to the presence of Burriss and Bocock. He has always had decent plate discipline with a questionable ability to hit for average. If this line is a sign of improvement and not just a small sample size mirage, Ivan has a chance to be a back-up IF at major-league level.

Guillermo Rodriguez and Eliezer Alfonzo: The Giants have a talent of taking older catchers and turning them into serviceable MLB-level back-ups. The last couple of years saw G-Rod and Notgardo. This year the G’s came up with Steve Holm! after Alfonzo was busted for PED’s and G-Rod sustained an injury. These two players likely won’t have any trade value, but they are certainly valuable to an organization as filler.

Struggling Prospects

SS Brian Bocock, 23: Brian Bocock should be in high-A. End of story. Bad, Sabean. Bad. No Cookie.

Next Up, Fresno Pitchers!