An early post for once, as all of the minor league games finished before I went to bed (though this may be more a factor of me staying up late than the teams finishing early). The night included some dominating pitching performances in the lower minors and more plate appearances by Posey and Gillaspie in short season ball. Wendell Fairley collected an 0-fer and snapped his nine game hitting streak. The lines:
Fresno
CF Ben Copeland: 1 for 5, K
2B Travis Denker: 0 for 3, BB, 2 K
1B John Bowker: 2 for 4, 2B, 3B
RP Roberto Novoa: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 2 K
Connecticut
CF Antoan Richardson: 2 for 3, BB
LF Eddy Martinez-Esteve: 1 for 4, K
RP Paul Oseguera: 4 IP, 6 H, BB, 5 K
RP Kelvin Pichardo: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 2 K
San Jose
2B Brad Boyer: 2 for 3, 2B, BB
3B Matt Downs: 1 for 5, 2 K
SS Sharlon Schoop: 2 for 3, 2B, BB, K
SP Tim Alderson: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 5 K
RP Taylor Wilding: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 3 K
Augusta
2B Nick Noonan: 1 for 3
DH Thomas Neal: 2 for 4, 2B, K
1B Angel Villalona: 2 for 4, K
SP Scott Barnes: 6 IP, H, BB, 14 K (!)
RP Mitch Lively: 2 IP, H, BB, 2 K
Salem-Keizer
3B Conor Gillaspie: 0 for 4
C Johnny Monell: 1 for 4, 2B
SP Mike Loree: 6 IP, 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K
AZL Giants
CF Wendell Fairley: 0 for 3, K
DH Buster Posey: 1 for 4, 2B
3B Josh Mazzola: 2 for 4, 2B, 2 K
SP Kelvin Marte: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 2 K
RP Ryan Verdugo: 3 IP, H, BB, 3 K
Notes
Two weeks ago I wrote:
Barnes is the first draftee from this year to make the jump to Augusta, which speaks to his polish. PG Crosschecker thought he was a second or third round talent and BA thought he could go anywhere from the third to the tenth round. He fell to the Giants in the 8th. Barnes throws a low 90s fastball with sink, a curveball, slider, and change. It’s too early to make any definitive judgments about the current cast of draftees (what with sample size and uneven levels of competition) but I think Barnes may be the best pitcher of the bunch. I’m thinking he might crack my Top 20 list by the end of the season.
Well he had another dominant game today where he struck out 14 of the 20 batters he faced. I would look for him to be fast-tracked ala Noah Lowry, Jonathan Sanchez and Pat Misch, all of whom skipped a level in their development (Pat in fact skipped two and went from short-season A to AA). I also hope that this lefty will be more of the Lowry/Sanchez variety than a pitcher in the Misch mold. Of course what set Lowry/Sanchez apart from Misch was that Lowry/Sanchez both had one plus-plus pitch in their repertoire. Lowry had that unhittable change and Sanchez has that live fastball. Misch was reputed to have an excellent change as well (in fact if memory serves, BA ranked his change as one of the best in the system) but that pitch never manifested itself in Fresno. I don’t know if Barnes has a plus pitch in his arsenal. He was reported to have a good sinker, but his 0.69 GB/FB has not borne that out. My guess is that he will start at Connecticut next year. He will turn 21 in September.
I’m not as high on Alderson as others, as I think his potential is limited by his low 90s fastball. But still, the results are undeniable and quite impressive for a 19 year old in the hitter-friendly Cal League. In yesterday’s prospect watch, I discussed some the problems I had in evaluating Villalona. In some ways, Alderson is the other side of the coin from Angel. Alderson has put up consistently good numbers, but I am wary of how his pitches will play at higher levels. If I were making a prospect list right now, I would put Villalona ahead of Alderson. But I can definitely see the argument for it being the other way around.
I too would put Villalona ahead of Alderson, though I’m not as worried about him as you are. He sits at low nineties, and some say can get it to 94, and the Giants expect him to add a bit more velocity, given his age and frame. He’s got nice movement on many of his pitches, so should do quite well. I know of some folks who know their stuff, and have paid attention to Alderson closely rate him higher than Madbum. As for Villalona, his steady improvement over the year is heartening, and he has clearly shown improved patience and pitch recognition over the last month. No doubt he has a ways to go with that, still, but given how little experience he has, it is still very impressive. So far, there is nothing that implies he won’t reach his potential, which is immense.
You could be right about Barnes going to AA, but I suspect San Jose might be more likely at this point. So far, I have Alderson, Maday, Pucetas, and English as certain promotions, and all likely to AA (though I wouldn’t be too surprised if one of them end up at Fresno). Bumgarner likely goes to San Jose, and I suspect Sosa will start there. Given the relative lack of space at AA, I’m thinking Barnes starts at San Jose.
Good point about the other possible promotions to Connecticut. You mentioned that one might be bumped up to Fresno. Another option could be a conversion to relief or a six-man rotation. Do you have any guesses as to how the other full-season rotations will fill out? I imagine Broshuis will get bumped up to Fresno, though I don’t have much confidence in his staying power there.
A six man rotation would be an interesting option, and i’m not sure which of the pitchers likely headed to AA might make a good conversion candidate. I’ll have to think about it more. I agree about Broshuis.
I’ll try and sit down and write out my guesses later, after I think about a bit more. ’til then!
Some interesting ones to consider:
Verdugo: Augusta?
King: Augusta?
Quirarte: San Jose?
Lively: San Jose, or AA?
Loree: Augusta or SJ?
Surkamp: S-K, or Augusta…and what is his injury?
who plays SS at San Jose: Crawford, Ciriaco, Frias or Schoop again?
I’m not giving up on Schoop just yet, but I don’t think he’ll man that spot alone next year. I think Lively will go to San Jose and Quirarte and Loree to Augusta. The others look right.